It seems that with each week that goes by a new poll is released for the presidential election here in Bolivia, and each week Evo Morales maintains his comfortable lead over his opponents.  But there is more to the election on December 6 than just the Presidency – the new constitution passed in January also set out rules for a fresh legislative system.  That means that the second part of a MAS (movimiento al socialismo) strategy for political dominance is to maintain a 2/3 majority in the legislature.  And in this area, MAS – and Morales – can’t be nearly as confident as they can be with the Presidency.  One of the challenges MAS faces is the way the legislature is elected (again, see the excellent explanation by the Democracy Center).  While MAS’s popularity is overwhelming in some departments, the Chamber of Departmental Representatives (equivalent to the U.S. Senate) gives equal representation to each department, meaning that less-populated opposition areas can tilt the balance of power away from MAS.

Residents of Santa Cruz, Bolivia, show their support for Tomás Monasterio, a candidate for Congressman from District C-53, who was campaining in the area at the time. Bolivia is holding a general election on December 6, 2009.

Santa Cruz is one of the most vocal of Morales’ critics.  This is the department of plentiful natural gas and agriculture and is simply culturally different from the Bolivian highlands in the west.  Evo’s nationalization of hydrocarbons and redistribution of farmland have not gone over well here.  But oddly, walking the streets it feels less political here than other cities further west, almost as though autonomy here has become ingrained in the lifestyle even before it has become ingrained in official politics.  But in the evening small groups of door-to-door campaigners can be found, and I followed one for Tomás Monasterio for a while on Wednesday evening.  He was working a residential area of Santa Cruz along with Germán Antelo, a well known politician who at one point was a candidate for president himself (early on he joined the PPB-CN coalition which is running Manfred Reyes Villa as its candidate for President).

Bolivia Election 2009 – Images by Eric Mehl